Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

Purpose

Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a meta-skill that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.

When to Use This Skill

English:

• User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"

• User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals

• User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning

• User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills

• User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"

• User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)

Japanese:

• 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」

• ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断

• 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」

• 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」

• 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート

Input Requirements

Required Skills (5)

#

Skill

JSON Prefix

Role

1

Market Breadth Analyzer

market_breadth_

Market participation breadth

2

Uptrend Analyzer

uptrend_analysis_

Sector uptrend ratios

3

Market Top Detector

market_top_

Distribution / top risk (defense)

4

Macro Regime Detector

macro_regime_

Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure)

5

FTD Detector

ftd_detector_

Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense)

Optional Skills (3)

#

Skill

JSON Prefix

Role

6

VCP Screener

vcp_screener_

Momentum stock setups (VCP)

7

Theme Detector

theme_detector_

Theme / sector momentum

8

CANSLIM Screener

canslim_screener_

Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction)

Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from reports/.

Execution Workflow

Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites

Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in reports/ and are recent (< 72 hours). If any are missing, run the corresponding skill first.

Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer

python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \

  --reports-dir reports/ \

  --output-dir reports/ \

  --max-age 72

The script will:

• Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports

• Extract normalized signals from each skill

• Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100)

• Compute composite conviction score

• Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns

• Generate target allocation and position sizing

• Output JSON and Markdown reports

Phase 3: Present Results

Present the generated Markdown report, highlighting:

• Conviction score and zone

• Detected pattern and match strength

• Strongest and weakest components

• Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)

• Position sizing parameters

• Relevant Druckenmiller principle

Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context

Load appropriate reference documents to provide philosophical context:

• High conviction: Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles

• Low conviction: Emphasize capital preservation and patience

• Pattern-specific: Apply relevant case study from references/case-studies.md

7-Component Scoring System

#

Component

Weight

Source Skill(s)

Key Signal

1

Market Structure

18%

Breadth + Uptrend

Market participation health

2

Distribution Risk

18%

Market Top (inverted)

Institutional selling risk

3

Bottom Confirmation

12%

FTD Detector

Re-entry signal after correction

4

Macro Alignment

18%

Macro Regime

Regime favorability

5

Theme Quality

12%

Theme Detector

Sector momentum health

6

Setup Availability

10%

VCP + CANSLIM

Quality stock setups

7

Signal Convergence

12%

All 5 required

Cross-skill agreement

4 Pattern Classifications

Pattern

Trigger Conditions

Druckenmiller Principle

Policy Pivot Anticipation

Transitional regime + high transition probability

"Focus on central banks and liquidity"

Unsustainable Distortion

Top risk >= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime

"How much you lose when wrong matters most"

Extreme Sentiment Contrarian

FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth

"Most money made in bear markets"

Wait &#x26; Observe

Low conviction + mixed signals (default)

"When you don't see it, don't swing"

Conviction Zone Mapping

Score

Zone

Exposure

Guidance

80-100

Maximum Conviction

90-100%

Fat pitch - swing hard

60-79

High Conviction

70-90%

Standard risk management

40-59

Moderate Conviction

50-70%

Reduce position sizes

20-39

Low Conviction

20-50%

Preserve capital, minimal risk

0-19

Capital Preservation

0-20%

Maximum defense

Output Files

• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json — Structured analysis data

• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md — Human-readable report

API Requirements

None. This skill reads JSON outputs from other skills. No API keys required.

Reference Documents

references/investment-philosophy.md

• Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon

• Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing

• Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment

references/market-analysis-guide.md

• Signal-to-action mapping framework

• Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions

• Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale

references/case-studies.md

• Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis

• Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions

• Load when user asks about historical parallels

references/conviction_matrix.md

• Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables

• Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix

• Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations

When to Load References

• First use: Load investment-philosophy.md for framework understanding

• Allocation questions: Load market-analysis-guide.md + conviction_matrix.md

• Historical context: Load case-studies.md

• Regular execution: References not needed — script handles scoring

Relationship to Other Skills

Skill

Relationship

Time Horizon

Market Breadth Analyzer

Input (required)

Current snapshot

Uptrend Analyzer

Input (required)

Current snapshot

Market Top Detector

Input (required)

2-8 weeks tactical

Macro Regime Detector

Input (required)

1-2 years structural

FTD Detector

Input (required)

Days-weeks event

VCP Screener

Input (optional)

Setup-specific

Theme Detector

Input (optional)

Weeks-months thematic

CANSLIM Screener

Input (optional)

Setup-specific

This Skill

Synthesizer

Unified conviction