SKILL.md

Scenario Analyzer

Overview

This skill analyzes medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios

starting from a news headline. It invokes two specialized agents in sequence

(scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer) and integrates multi-angle

analysis with a critical review into a comprehensive report.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

You want to analyze the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline

You want to construct multiple 18-month scenarios

You want sector/stock impacts organized into 1st/2nd/3rd-order effects

You need a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion

Examples:

/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"

/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"

/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

Prerequisites

API Keys: None (uses only WebSearch/WebFetch)

MCP Servers: None

Dependencies: The scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐

│                    Skill (orchestrator)                              │

│                                                                      │

│  Phase 1: Preparation                                                │

│  ├─ Headline parsing                                                 │

│  ├─ Event type classification                                        │

│  └─ Reference loading                                                │

│                                                                      │

│  Phase 2: Agent invocation                                           │

│  ├─ scenario-analyst (primary analysis)                              │

│  └─ strategy-reviewer (second opinion)                               │

│                                                                      │

│  Phase 3: Integration &#x26; report generation                            │

│  └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md                   │

└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

#### Step 1.1: Headline Parsing

Parse the headline provided by the user.

Headline check

Confirm a headline was passed as an argument

If not provided, ask the user for input

Keyword extraction

Key entities (company names, country names, institution names)

Numeric data (rates, prices, quantities)

Actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.)

#### Step 1.2: Event Type Classification

Classify the headline into one of the following categories:

Phase 2: Agent Invocation

#### Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst

Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent.

Agent tool:

- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"

- prompt: |

    Perform an 18-month scenario analysis for the following headline.

    ## Target Headline

    [the input headline]

    ## Event Type

    [classification result]

    ## Reference Information

    [summary of the loaded references]

    ## Analysis Requirements

    1. Use WebSearch to collect related news from the past 2 weeks

    2. Construct 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (probabilities sum to 100%)

    3. Analyze 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts by sector

    4. Select 3-5 positive- and 3-5 negative-impact stocks (US market only)

    5. Output everything in English

Expected output:

List of related news articles

Details of the 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)

Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)

Stock recommendation list

#### Step 2.2: Invoke strategy-reviewer

Using the scenario-analyst's results, invoke the review agent.

Agent tool:

- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"

- prompt: |

    Review the following scenario analysis.

    ## Target Headline

    [the input headline]

    ## Analysis Result

    [the full scenario-analyst output]

    ## Review Requirements

    Review from the following angles:

    1. Overlooked sectors/stocks

    2. Validity of the scenario probability allocation

    3. Logical consistency of the impact analysis

    4. Detection of optimism/pessimism bias

    5. Proposal of alternative scenarios

    6. Realism of the timeline

    Output constructive and specific feedback in English.

Expected output:

Pointing out blind spots

Opinion on the scenario probabilities

Pointing out bias

Proposal of alternative scenarios

Final recommendations

Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation

#### Step 3.1: Integrate Results

Integrate the output of both agents to produce the final investment judgment.

Integration points:

Fill in the blind spots raised in the review

Adjust the probability allocation (if needed)

Make the final judgment accounting for bias

Formulate a concrete action plan

#### Step 3.2: Generate Report

Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file.

Save location: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

# Headline Scenario Analysis Report

**Analyzed at**: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM

**Target headline**: [the input headline]

**Event type**: [classification category]

---

## 1. Related News Articles

[news list collected by scenario-analyst]

## 2. Scenario Overview (through 18 months out)

### Base Case (XX% probability)

[scenario details]

### Bull Case (XX% probability)

[scenario details]

### Bear Case (XX% probability)

[scenario details]

## 3. Sector / Industry Impact

### 1st-Order Impact (direct)

[impact table]

### 2nd-Order Impact (value chain / related industries)

[impact table]

### 3rd-Order Impact (macro / regulation / technology)

[impact table]

## 4. Stocks Expected to Benefit (3-5 tickers)

[stock table]

## 5. Stocks Expected to Be Hurt (3-5 tickers)

[stock table]

## 6. Second Opinion / Review

[strategy-reviewer output]

## 7. Final Investment Judgment &#x26; Implications

### Recommended Actions

[concrete actions informed by the review]

### Risk Factors

[list of key risks]

### Monitoring Points

[indicators / events to follow]

---

**Generated by**: scenario-analyzer skill

**Agents**: scenario-analyst, strategy-reviewer

#### Step 3.3: Save the Report

Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist

Save as scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md (e.g., scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md)

Notify the user that the save completed

Do not save directly to the project root

Output

This skill generates the following file:

File

Format

Description

reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

Markdown

Comprehensive scenario analysis report

Output contents:

List of related news articles

3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (with probability allocation)

Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)

Positive/negative stock recommendations

Second opinion / review

Final investment judgment & implications

Resources

References

references/headline_event_patterns.md - Event patterns and market reactions

references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md - Sector sensitivity matrix

references/scenario_playbooks.md - Scenario-construction templates

Agents

scenario-analyst - Primary scenario analysis

strategy-reviewer - Second opinion / review

Important Notes

Language

All analysis and output are in English

Stock tickers remain in their standard (English) symbols

Target Market

Stock selection is US-listed equities only

ADRs included

Time Horizon

Scenarios target 18 months

Described in 3 phases: 0-6 months / 6-12 months / 12-18 months

Probability Allocation

Base + Bull + Bear = 100%

Each scenario's probability is described with its rationale

Second Opinion

Mandatory (always invoke strategy-reviewer)

Review results are reflected in the final judgment

Output Location (Important)

Always save under the reports/ directory

Path: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

Example: reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md

Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist

Must not save directly to the project root

Quality Checklist

Confirm the following before finalizing the report:

Is the headline parsed correctly?

Is the event type classification appropriate?

Do the 3 scenario probabilities sum to 100%?

Are the 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts logically connected?

Is the stock selection backed by concrete rationale?

Is the strategy-reviewer review included?

Is the final judgment reflecting the review documented?

Is the report saved to the correct path?

scenario-analyzer