Task Estimation

When to use this skill

• Sprint Planning: Decide what work to include in the sprint

• Roadmap creation: Build long-term plans

• Resource planning: Estimate team size and schedule

Instructions

Step 1: Story Points (relative estimation)

Fibonacci sequence: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21

## Story Point guidelines

1 Point (Very Small)

• Example: text change, constant value update

• Time: 1-2 hours

• Complexity: very low

• Risk: none

2 Points (Small)

• Example: simple bug fix, add logging

• Time: 2-4 hours

• Complexity: low

• Risk: low

3 Points (Medium)

• Example: simple CRUD API endpoint

• Time: 4-8 hours

• Complexity: medium

• Risk: low

5 Points (Medium-Large)

• Example: complex form implementation, auth middleware

• Time: 1-2 days

• Complexity: medium

• Risk: medium

8 Points (Large)

• Example: new feature (frontend + backend)

• Time: 2-3 days

• Complexity: high

• Risk: medium

13 Points (Very Large)

• Example: payment system integration

• Time: 1 week

• Complexity: very high

• Risk: high

• Recommended: Split into smaller tasks

21+ Points (Epic)

• Required: Must be split into smaller stories

### Step 2: Planning Poker

**Process**:

1. Product Owner explains the story

2. Team asks questions

3. Everyone picks a card (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13)

4. Reveal simultaneously

5. Explain highest/lowest scores

6. Re-vote

7. Reach consensus

**Example**:

Story: "Users can upload a profile photo"

Member A: 3 points (simple frontend)

Member B: 5 points (image resizing needed)

Member C: 8 points (S3 upload, security considerations)

Discussion:

• Use an image processing library

• S3 is already set up

• File size validation needed

Re-vote → consensus on 5 points

### Step 3: T-Shirt Sizing (quick estimation)

T-Shirt sizes

• XS: 1-2 Story Points (within 1 hour)

• S: 2-3 Story Points (half day)

• M: 5 Story Points (1-2 days)

• L: 8 Story Points (1 week)

• XL: 13+ Story Points (needs splitting)

When to use:

• Initial backlog grooming

• Rough roadmap planning

• Quick prioritization

### Step 4: Consider risk and uncertainty

**Estimation adjustment**:

interface TaskEstimate {

baseEstimate: number; // base estimate

risk: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high';

uncertainty: number; // 0-1

finalEstimate: number; // adjusted estimate

}

function adjustEstimate(estimate: TaskEstimate): number {

let buffer = 1.0;

// risk buffer

if (estimate.risk === 'medium') buffer *= 1.3;

if (estimate.risk === 'high') buffer *= 1.5;

// uncertainty buffer

buffer *= (1 + estimate.uncertainty);

return Math.ceil(estimate.baseEstimate * buffer);

}

// Example

const task = {

baseEstimate: 5,

risk: 'medium',

uncertainty: 0.2 // 20% uncertainty

};

const final = adjustEstimate(task); // 5 1.3 1.2 = 7.8 → 8 points

## Output format

### Estimation document template

Task: [Task Name]

Description

[work description]

Acceptance Criteria

• [ ] Criterion 1

• [ ] Criterion 2

• [ ] Criterion 3

Estimation

• Story Points: 5

• T-Shirt Size: M

• Estimated Time: 1-2 days

Breakdown

• Frontend UI: 2 points

• API Endpoint: 2 points

• Testing: 1 point

Risks

• Uncertain API response time (medium risk)

• External library dependency (low risk)

Dependencies

• User authentication must be completed first

Notes

• Need to discuss design with UX team