Estimate Analysis Skill

Deep-dives into analyst estimates and revision trends using Yahoo Finance data via yfinance. Covers EPS and revenue estimate distributions, revision momentum, growth projections, and multi-period comparisons — the full picture of where the street thinks a company is heading.

Important: Data is for research and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. yfinance is not affiliated with Yahoo, Inc.

Step 1: Ensure yfinance Is Available

Current environment status:

!`python3 -c "import yfinance; print('yfinance ' + yfinance.__version__ + ' installed')" 2>/dev/null || echo "YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED"`

If YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED, install it:

import subprocess, sys

subprocess.check_call([sys.executable, "-m", "pip", "install", "-q", "yfinance"])

If already installed, skip to the next step.

Step 2: Identify the Ticker and Gather Estimate Data

Extract the ticker from the user's request. Fetch all estimate-related data in one script.

import yfinance as yf

import pandas as pd

ticker = yf.Ticker("AAPL")  # replace with actual ticker

# --- Estimate data ---

earnings_est = ticker.earnings_estimate      # EPS estimates by period

revenue_est = ticker.revenue_estimate        # Revenue estimates by period

eps_trend = ticker.eps_trend                 # EPS estimate changes over time

eps_revisions = ticker.eps_revisions         # Up/down revision counts

growth_est = ticker.growth_estimates         # Growth rate estimates

# --- Historical context ---

earnings_hist = ticker.earnings_history      # Track record

info = ticker.info                           # Company basics

quarterly_income = ticker.quarterly_income_stmt  # Recent actuals

What each data source provides

Data Source

What It Shows

Why It Matters

earnings_estimate

Current EPS consensus by period (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y)

The estimate levels — what analysts expect

revenue_estimate

Current revenue consensus by period

Top-line expectations

eps_trend

How the EPS estimate has changed (7d, 30d, 60d, 90d ago)

Revision direction — rising or falling expectations

eps_revisions

Count of upward vs downward revisions (7d, 30d)

Revision breadth — are most analysts raising or cutting?

growth_estimates

Growth rate estimates vs peers and sector

Relative positioning

earnings_history

Actual vs estimated for last 4 quarters

Calibration — how good are these estimates historically?

Step 3: Route Based on User Intent

The user might want different levels of analysis. Route accordingly:

User Request

Focus Area

Key Sections

General estimate analysis

Full analysis

All sections

"How have estimates changed"

Revision trends

EPS Trend + Revisions

"What are analysts expecting"

Current consensus

Estimate overview

"Growth estimates"

Growth projections

Growth Estimates

"Bull vs bear case"

Estimate range

High/low spread analysis

Compare estimates across periods

Multi-period

Period comparison table

When in doubt, provide the full analysis — more context is better.

Step 4: Build the Estimate Analysis

Section 1: Estimate Overview

Present the current consensus for all available periods from earnings_estimate and revenue_estimate:

EPS Estimates:

Period

Consensus

Low

High

Range Width

Analysts

YoY Growth

Current Qtr (0q)

$1.42

$1.35

$1.50

$0.15 (10.6%)

28

+12.7%

Next Qtr (+1q)

$1.58

$1.48

$1.68

$0.20 (12.7%)

25

+8.3%

Current Year (0y)

$6.70

$6.50

$6.95

$0.45 (6.7%)

30

+10.2%

Next Year (+1y)

$7.45

$7.10

$7.85

$0.75 (10.1%)

28

+11.2%

Revenue Estimates:

Period

Consensus

Low

High

Analysts

YoY Growth

Current Qtr

$94.3B

$92.1B

$96.8B

25

+5.4%

Next Qtr

$102.1B

$99.5B

$105.0B

22

+6.1%

Calculate and flag:

• Range width as % of consensus — wide ranges (>15%) signal high uncertainty

• Analyst coverage — fewer than 5 analysts means thin coverage, note this

• Growth trajectory — is growth accelerating or decelerating across periods?

Section 2: Revision Trends (EPS Trend)

This is often the most actionable section. From eps_trend, show how estimates have moved:

Period

Current

7 Days Ago

30 Days Ago

60 Days Ago

90 Days Ago

Current Qtr

$1.42

$1.41

$1.40

$1.38

$1.35

Next Qtr

$1.58

$1.57

$1.56

$1.55

$1.54

Current Year

$6.70

$6.68

$6.65

$6.58

$6.50

Next Year

$7.45

$7.43

$7.40

$7.35

$7.28

Summarize the trend: "Current quarter EPS estimates have risen 5.2% over the last 90 days, with most of the increase in the last 30 days — accelerating upward revision momentum."

Key interpretation:

• Rising estimates ahead of earnings = positive setup (the bar is rising)

• Falling estimates = analysts cutting numbers, often a negative signal

• Flat estimates = no new information being priced in

• Recent acceleration/deceleration matters more than the total move

Section 3: Revision Breadth (EPS Revisions)

From eps_revisions, show the up vs. down count:

Period

Up (last 7d)

Down (last 7d)

Up (last 30d)

Down (last 30d)

Current Qtr

5

1

12

3

Next Qtr

3

2

8

5

Calculate a revision ratio: Up / (Up + Down). Ratios above 0.7 are strongly bullish; below 0.3 are bearish.

Section 4: Growth Estimates

From growth_estimates, compare the company's expected growth to benchmarks:

Entity

Current Qtr

Next Qtr

Current Year

Next Year

Past 5Y Annual

AAPL

+12.7%

+8.3%

+10.2%

+11.2%

+14.5%

Industry

+9.1%

+7.0%

+8.5%

+9.0%

—

Sector

+11.3%

+8.8%

+10.0%

+10.5%

—

S&P 500

+7.5%

+6.2%

+8.0%

+8.5%

—

Highlight whether the company is expected to grow faster or slower than its peers.

Section 5: Historical Estimate Accuracy

From earnings_history, assess how reliable estimates have been:

Quarter

Estimate

Actual

Surprise %

Direction

Q3 2024

$1.35

$1.40

+3.7%

Beat

Q2 2024

$1.30

$1.33

+2.3%

Beat

Q1 2024

$1.52

$1.53

+0.7%

Beat

Q4 2023

$2.10

$2.18

+3.8%

Beat

Calculate:

• Beat rate: X of 4 quarters

• Average surprise: magnitude and direction

• Trend in surprise: Are beats getting bigger or smaller? A shrinking surprise with rising estimates could mean the bar is catching up to reality.

Step 5: Synthesize and Respond

Present the analysis with clear structure:

-

Lead with the key insight: "AAPL estimates are trending higher across all periods, with positive revision breadth (80% of recent revisions are upward)."

-

Show the tables for each section the user cares about

-

Provide interpretive context:

• Is the revision trend confirming or contradicting the stock's recent price action?

• How does the growth outlook compare to what's priced into the current P/E?

• What's the relationship between estimate accuracy history and current estimate levels?

-

Flag risks and nuances:

• Estimates cluster around consensus — the "real" distribution of outcomes is wider than low/high suggests

• Revision momentum can reverse quickly on a single data point (guidance change, macro event)

• Yahoo Finance estimates may lag behind real-time consensus providers by hours or days

• Growth estimates for out-years (+1y) are inherently less reliable

Caveats to always include

• Analyst estimates reflect a consensus view, not certainty

• Estimate revisions are a signal but not a guarantee of future performance

• This is not financial advice

Reference Files

• references/api_reference.md — Detailed yfinance API reference for all estimate-related methods

Read the reference file when you need exact return formats or edge case handling.