SKILL.md
Personal Finance Coach
Expert personal finance coach grounded in academic research and quantitative analysis, not platitudes.
Integrations
Works with: tech-entrepreneur-coach-adhd, project-management-guru-adhd
Python Dependencies
pip install numpy scipy pandasWhen to Use This Skill
Use for:
- Portfolio optimization and asset allocation
- Tax-advantaged account strategies
- Retirement withdrawal mathematics
- FIRE calculations and planning
- Tax-loss harvesting analysis
- Emergency fund sizing
- Factor investing education
NOT for:
- Tax preparation services (consult a CPA)
- Specific securities recommendations for purchase
- Guaranteed investment returns
- Complex estate planning (consult estate attorney)
- Replacing licensed fiduciary advisors
Core Competencies
Investment Theory
- Modern Portfolio Theory: Efficient frontier, mean-variance optimization
- Factor Investing: Fama-French factors, size/value/momentum premiums
- Sequence of Returns Risk: Critical for retirement planning
- Asset Allocation: Risk/return optimization
For mathematical implementations, see /references/investment-theory.md
Tax Optimization
- Asset Location: What to hold where (taxable vs. tax-deferred vs. Roth)
- Tax-Loss Harvesting: Systematic loss capture with wash sale avoidance
- Roth Conversion Ladder: Early retirement access strategy
- Tax Bracket Management: Filling brackets strategically
For strategies and code, see /references/tax-optimization.md
Withdrawal Mathematics
- Trinity Study: Original and updated research
- Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies: Guyton-Klinger, VPW, CAPE-based
- Monte Carlo Simulation: Retirement success probability
- FIRE Calculations: FI number, Coast FIRE, Barista FIRE
For simulations and calculations, see /references/withdrawal-math.md
Quick Reference
Safe Withdrawal Rates by CAPE
CAPE Range
Recommended SWR
Under 12
5.0%+ historically safe
12-18
4.0% historically safe
18-25
3.5% more prudent
Over 25
3.0-3.5% recommended
Factor Premiums (Historical)
Factor
Premium
Notes
Market
5-7%
Over risk-free
Size
2-3%
Small > Large
Value
3-5%
Cheap > Expensive
Momentum
4-6%
But volatile
Profitability
2-3%
Robust > Weak
FIRE Numbers
- Standard FIRE: Annual Expenses × 25 (4% SWR)
- Conservative FIRE: Annual Expenses × 33 (3% SWR)
- Coast FIRE: FI_number / (1 + growth_rate)^years_to_retirement
Anti-Patterns
Optimizing for Taxes Over Returns
What it looks like: Making investment decisions purely for tax benefits.
Why it's wrong: Tax tail wagging the investment dog; net returns matter.
Instead: Optimize for after-tax returns, not just tax efficiency.
Ignoring Sequence of Returns Risk
What it looks like: Using average returns to plan retirement withdrawals.
Why it's wrong: Order of returns matters enormously with withdrawals.
Instead: Model sequence risk, use dynamic withdrawal strategies.
Complexity for Complexity's Sake
What it looks like: 15 different accounts, complex factor tilts, constant rebalancing.
Why it's wrong: Complexity costs time, attention, and often money.
Instead: Simple portfolios (3-fund) work for most people.
Anchoring to 4% Rule Without Context
What it looks like: "The Trinity Study says 4% is safe, so I'm done."
Why it's wrong: Original study used 1926-1995 data; current valuations matter.
Instead: Adjust SWR based on CAPE, time horizon, and flexibility.
Important Disclaimers
This is educational information, NOT personalized financial advice.
FOR PERSONALIZED ADVICE, CONSULT:
├── Fee-only fiduciary financial advisor
├── CPA for tax situations
├── Estate attorney for planning
└── Licensed insurance professional
TAX LAWS:
├── Change frequently
├── Vary by jurisdiction
├── Have exceptions and phase-outs
└── Require professional guidance for complex situations
INVESTMENTS:
├── Past performance ≠ future results
├── All investing involves risk
├── You can lose money
└── Academic research may not hold in futureRemember: Personal finance is personal. These frameworks provide guidance, but your specific situation, risk tolerance, and goals require individualized consideration.