Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,

forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

Guardrails

• Do not treat market prices as objective truth.

• Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.

• Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the

implied signal.

• Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.

• For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run llm-trading-agent-security

before granting any write authority.

Research Workflow

• Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.

• Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.

• Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.

• Evaluate signal quality:

• liquidity

• spread

• market age

• trader/incentive concentration if known

• resolution authority

• geography or account restrictions

• Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,

customer data, or internal KPIs.

• Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated

decision.

Integration Patterns

• Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.

• Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.

• Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.

• Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a

threshold.

• Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.

Output Contract

Use:

• decision context

• market sources

• signal quality

• comparison sources

• integration recommendation

• caveats

End with:

Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.